Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0

Author-Name: Gabor P. Kiss
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Author-Email: kissg@mnb.hu
Author-Person: ppk1


Title: There and Back Again - Six Fiscal Tales from the Past Decades

Abstract: A phenomenon known in the international literature that is nevertheless
unaddressed is that the standard indicators used for analysing fiscal policy can yield
misleading results. Creative accounting can distort basic statistics, dividing data into
groups of "revenue" and "expenditure" leads to the same distorted results, and the
common indicators of the cyclically adjusted balance are also misleading. Based on
the indicators adjusted for the impact of these distortions, six fiscal episodes are
defined in Hungary between 1995 and 2016. The first episode is the adjustment
in 1995-1996. The structure of spending changed then between 1997 and 2001.
In 2002-2006, consolidation was delayed after a sudden, major round of fiscal
expansion. After this, several approaches were tried to ensure consolidation, in two
steps, between 2007 and 2009 and then between 2010 and 2012. Finally, between
2013 and 2016 the structure of spending was changed once again.

Classification-JEL: E30, H10, H60
Keywords: fiscal expansion, consolidation, cyclical adjustment, creative accounting
Pages: 73-100
Volume: 21
Issue: 3
Year: 2022
File-URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-21-3-st3-kiss.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:21:y:2022:i:3:p:73-100