Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0

Author-Name: Tamas Ginter
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest
Author-Email: gintert@mnb.hu
Author-Person:

Author-Name: Patrik Tischler
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Author-Email: tischlerp@mnb.hu
Author-Person:

Title: Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis

Abstract: After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine,
in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by
deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics
to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the
Visegrad countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies
were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the prepandemic
levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite shortterm
declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with
politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with
non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia
has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling
from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.

Classification-JEL: F02, F50, F62
Keywords: deglobalisation, decoupling, Central and Eastern Europe, Visegrad countries
Pages: 56-82
Volume: 23
Issue: 2
Year: 2024
File-URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-23-2-st2-ginter-tischler.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:56-82