Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emese Kreiszné Hudák
Author-Name: Péter Varga
Author-Name: Viktor Várpalotai
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Author-Email: hudake@mnb.hu
Title: The macroeconomic impacts of demographic
changes in Hungary in the context of the
European Union
Abstract: The article provides a review of Hungarian and international demographic trends and
examines the macroeconomic impacts of demographic developments in Hungary in
comparison with the European Union. Based on available population projections, it
is expected that ageing will also characterise Hungarian demographic processes, but
the extent of ageing in Hungary may be more moderate than the estimated impact
in several regional and Western European countries. According to the population
projections and estimations found in the literature, we came to the conclusion that
in the long run population ageing is expected to substantially change labour supply,
consumption, and savings ratios, dampen growth prospects and potentially exert
a disinflationary impact in the upcoming decades. Demographic processes may
affect developments in key variables relevant for the conduct of monetary policy
and the effectiveness of transmission channels. In addition, population ageing may
increase budgetary expenditures through the pension and the healthcare system.
The adverse impacts may be mitigated by economic policy measures and adjustment
by economic agents. At the same time, demographic processes may also represent
an economic opportunity that can be exploited through the adequate reallocation
of resources.
Classification-JEL:E21, J10, J11, H50
Keywords: economic growth, demographic trends, Hungary
Journal: Financial and Economic Review  
Pages: 89–127
Volume: 14
Issue: 2
Year: 2015
File-URL: http://english.hitelintezetiszemle.hu/letoltes/4-kreiszne-varga-varpalotai-en.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127