Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Mihály Szoboszlai
Author-X-Name-First: Mihály
Author-X-Name-Last: Szoboszlai
Author-Email: szoboszlaim@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)

Author-Name: Zoltán Bögöthy
Author-X-Name-First: Zoltán
Author-X-Name-Last: Bögöthy
Author-Email: bogothyz@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)

Author-Name: Pálma Mosberger
Author-X-Name-First: Pálma
Author-X-Name-Last: Mosberger
Author-Email: mosbergerp@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)

Author-Name: Dávid Berta
Author-X-Name-First: Dávid 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berta
Author-Email: bertad@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)

Title: Assessment of the tax and transfer changes in Hungary between 2010 and 2017 using a microsimulation model


Abstract: In this study, we analyse the immediate budgetary and the long-term macroeconomic and fiscal effects of measures
concerning taxes, contributions and transfers in the period between 2010 and 2017 with a microsimulation model. The
corresponding tool is an updated and extended version of the behavioural general equilibrium microsimulation model
developed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. Among the relevant fiscal policy measures, we primarily took into account
the changes in labour taxes, the main elements of the transformation of social benefits and indirectly several other tax
changes (on sales, capital and consumption taxes) over the period between 2010 and 2017. Our results suggest that the
policy measures examined might contribute to Hungarian GDP growth by nearly 6 percent with a labour supply growth
exceeding 6 percent from 2010 onward. The measures have a positive effect on the general government balance, improving
the fiscal position over the long run by more than HUF 200 billion. The effects of the statutory changes are evaluated
separately and cumulatively. The results of the study might be significantly influenced by the calibrated parameter values
in the macromodel that is linked to the microsimulation.


Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2018
File-URL: https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-op-135-final.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: 2018/135
Classification-JEL: C54, E62, H22, H31
Keywords: behavioural microsimulation, micro macro model, taxation, transfers, tax reform
Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2018/135