Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Zoltán M. Jakab
Author-X-Name-First: Zoltán
Author-X-Name-Last: M. Jakab
Author-Email: jakabz@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Author-Name: Mihály András Kovács
Author-X-Name-First: Mihály András
Author-X-Name-Last: Kovács
Author-Email: kovacsm@mnb.hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Magyar Nemzeti Bank 

Title: Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary

Abstract: This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable and nontradable sector in relative price (nontradable/tradable) adjustments. We formulate a policy reaction function to separate the effect of tradable pricing shocks from policy shocks. The framework we use is a two sector open economy real exchange rate model. Its contemporaneous structure is used for the identification of structural shocks. Since the effect of policy shocks on tradable real exchange rate was not significant, our results suggest that nominal rigidities did not play an important role during the period under consideration. The evolution of nontradable prices and relative (nontradable/tradable) prices were well explained by nontradable output shocks. Thus, the Balassa-Samuelson-effect seems to have been at work in Hungary during the first eight years of transition.

Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp1999-6.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf

Number: 1999/6
Classification-JEL: 
Keywords: 
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:1999/6